Season-to-season factors continue to keep Texas pecan production from reaching previous yield benchmarks, said a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert.
Monte Nesbitt, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension horticulture specialist and assistant professor in the Texas A&M Department of Horticultural Sciences, said pecan trees typically produce good to heavy crops followed by a light to very light crop the following year.
But that typical on-and-off cycle pecan growers and homeowners have come to expect from their trees has gotten off track due to a range of factors, Nesbitt said.
“Things are just out of sync, and we’re not seeing the production our 80,000-plus acres of pecans are capable of,” he said. “We should be a 50-million-pound producer in a good year, but we’re estimating another year around 28 to 32 million pounds.”
Texas pecan production mixed
The two previous seasons were easier to explain because of drought, Nesbitt said, especially with the extreme heat and lack of rain in 2023. However, this season has presented a mixed bag of conditions – too much moisture for some Texas orchards and not enough for others – that will lead to another subpar statewide yield.
“There are locations that look good, where the nut crops look moderate to moderately heavy, but they’re dispersed around the state,” he said.
In the eastern half of the state to south Central Texas and down to the Gulf Coast, early spring moisture hurt as much as it helped by setting the stage for disease, Nesbitt said.
Scab, a fungal pathogen and the most economically damaging disease pest in pecans, is front and center among a range of diseases that could impact yields and quality for many orchards.
Nesbitt called 2024 the worst manifestation of scab he’s seen in years. The disease’s presence will impact at-home producers as well as commercially managed orchards, where disease control practices were hampered by the weather.
On the other end of the moisture spectrum, pecan orchards in the Panhandle and High Plains down to El Paso continue to deal with drought and/or water restrictions, Nesbitt said. In those regions, the on-and-off cycle for trees has not aligned with growing conditions and water availability.
For instance, growers around El Paso received a water allotment increase this season compared to last but are not expected to have a bumper crop because it is an “off” year for most trees, he said. The previous season was vice versa.
“Last year, those orchards had good production from the trees, but the water situation was not good,” he said. “This year, they have the water, but it’s not a big cropping year. They need water consistency to reach each season’s potential.”
Potential for pecan demand
Poor wholesale pecan prices have exacerbated economic challenges for growers, Nesbitt said. Low prices have plagued the U.S. pecan industry since the pandemic after a good run of years with high prices prior to that global event. Poor prices, so-so yields and cost increases on inputs like fertilizer, fuel and labor have been difficult for many growers.
Blair Krebs, executive director of the Texas Pecan Growers Association, said wholesale prices improved some – about 20-30 cents per pound – last year, but that it is too early to guess how they will respond to supply and demand factors when harvest is complete.
A few demand-side factors may improve the market for growers in the future, she said. Mars Inc. has announced it will make a highly successful test run of pecan Snickers — a permanent fixture in its candy lineup.
The pecan industry is also seeing positive movement on potential export demand. Industry representatives were working to reestablish better trade with China where high tariffs on pecans devastated years of export gains there. Popularity of the nut in Chinese markets had boosted domestic prices significantly before the trade rift.
India is also emerging as a potential growth market for pecans, she said. Industry representatives had been working to reduce high tariffs and were successful at negotiating a 70% reduction. Krebs said progress there will likely be slow, but that the large, young population presents a considerable opportunity for growers.
Meanwhile, Nesbitt said Texas pecan growers continue to realize strong prices for direct-to-consumer and direct-to-retail markets.
“We have a growing number of producers in Texas who are seeing the opportunity with population growth to interface with customers and market their story as a local pecan farmer,” she said. “That’s good for consumers and farmers.”
AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:
Central
Excellent rainfall resulted in some local flooding. Temperatures cooled down toward the end of the week. Pasture conditions remained fair to poor, but pasture and hay meadows should recover to make some grazing and hay production possible. Lake levels were up and expected to continue rising. The rainfall should help pecans finish filling out nuts. Wheat and oats were planted or will be soon. Farmers were wrapping up an unseasonably long harvest period on corn and sorghum. The cotton harvest had begun or should start soon. Armyworms were bad in a few spots. Producers expressed concerns about recent rainfall possibly triggering toxicity issues in sorghum/Sudan and Johnson grasses. The cattle market fell a little bit but was still solid. Livestock were in good condition.
Rolling Plains
Relief arrived with a much-needed cool down and rain. Not all counties received enough rain to improve water levels in livestock drinking sources, but it boosted soil moisture across the district. Many farmers were hoping to begin field preparations for fall wheat planting soon.
Coastal Bend
Scattered showers and cooler temperatures arrived, helping maintain soil moisture. The cotton harvest was nearly finished, with module trucks hauling bales to the gins. Fieldwork such as stalk chopping and disking ramped up. Rice and corn harvests were complete, while hay cutting slowed down but remained steady. Another round of baling was expected soon. Range and pasture conditions were holding steady but needed more rain, as dry, breezy days depleted topsoil moisture. Fall armyworms started appearing in Bermuda grass. Livestock remained in good condition, with calves gaining weight. Cattle prices were steady to higher, with livestock maintaining good body condition.
East
Rainfall was reported in some areas. Producers in counties that received rain were able to cut more hay with the possibility of another cutting. Many other counties in the district remained dry. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good. Subsoil conditions were short to adequate. Topsoil conditions were adequate. Marion County reported that producers had begun to prepare fall gardens. Cattle market prices were lower in all classes. Livestock were in fair to good condition. Armyworms remained a widespread problem.
Southeast
Parts of the district received scattered showers throughout the week, which provided some pastures with a good amount of rain. More rain was the forecast. The cotton harvest was in full swing. Forage continued to be cut for hay, and pastures were declining due to lack of moisture and high temperatures. Following the rains, some producers treated fall armyworms and continued to monitor for forage pests. The rice harvest was delayed due to scattered showers. Sorghum harvest was complete, and corn harvest was wrapping up. Pastures were in great shape in some areas with ponds full. Cattle were doing well. Rangeland and pasture ratings were poor to excellent. Soil moisture levels ranged from very short to surplus.
South Plains
Most of the district received anywhere from 0.5-4 inches of rain. Extreme heat at the end of August damaged cotton and sorghum crops, but the rain helped some with boll fill. In other areas, cotton plants continued to drop bolls. The cooler temperatures provided some relief but the outlook for harvest was not good. Significant rain in some counties kept farmers out of fields, while in other counties it made conditions right for planting wheat and preparing for winter pea planting. Corn was finishing up in some areas and peas and seed sorghum looked good. Pumpkins and silage were being harvested. Grain sorghum that was still flowering was being watched carefully for sorghum aphids, headworms, lygus, stinkbugs and midge. An influx of armyworms was reported. Light but widespread aphids and spider mites in cotton were seen, and corn fields were experiencing earworm pressure. Cattle were in good condition, and recent rains improved pastures in some areas.
Panhandle
The district experienced very scattered showers with continued hot temperatures. Wheat planting started, primarily under irrigation for fall pasture. Corn, cotton and grain sorghum were well on their way to maturity. Inputs ceased for all three crops except for harvest aid in cotton. Haying of improved pastures and summer annuals continued. There was an increase in silage harvesting in early planted forage sorghum. The harvest of corn planted for silage purposes was expected to follow soon. Rangelands were drying down and going dormant. Overall soil moisture was very short to short. Pasture and range conditions were very poor to fair. Overall, crops were poor to good.
North
Much-needed rain showers were reported in some parts of the district. Drought conditions were still impacting some counties, but the cooler temperatures eased the heat stress on many crops. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels were adequate to surplus for most of the district, with a few areas ranging from very short to short. Pasture and rangelands were fair to good on average, with a few reports of poor to fair conditions. Hay and corn harvest continued in some counties. The grain sorghum harvest was nearly complete. Preparation for winter wheat planting was underway, with most wheat acres prepared. Summer weeds were maturing, while cool-season weeds had not yet matured. Livestock were in good condition; however, due to declining grass quality, some producers began to wean calves earlier than usual. Fall armyworms were still impacting some area pastures.
Far West
Temperature highs last week were in the low-80s with lows in the upper 50s. Rain totals reached 1-10 inches throughout the district. The rain dramatically improved soil moisture conditions and filled up stock ponds. Most of the showers were very slow and steady, allowing the rain to soak into the ground with little runoff, even on the steeper sloped fields. Pastures produced small amounts of grass that were expected to hold on for a little while. Winter wheat planting continued, and early planted fields began to emerge. Most cotton was too far along to benefit from the rain. Pecans were growing while watermelon and cantaloupe growth had slowed down. Livestock were in fair condition. Beef cattle producers in the area had begun their fall work, and recent rains were expected to affect the number that would be shipped or retained in the coming months.
West Central
The district experienced significant rainfall with totals ranging from 4-15 inches. The week-long rain delivered much-needed moisture to the district. This rainfall and cooler temperatures allowed for adequate moisture absorption by the soil. The improved soil moisture was expected to benefit small grain producers who were preparing to plant wheat and other winter crops. The rain arrived too late to salvage the cotton crop, but greatly enhanced prospects for wheat and winter grazing. Pasture and range conditions showed marked improvement, and most stock tanks and lakes were refilling. The rainfall boosted forage growth, though it may also cause an increase in insect pest problems. Livestock conditions were steady with fall weaning of calves underway. Dove hunting season opened with favorable conditions. Despite a reduction in cattle sales due to the rain and the temporary closure of sale barns, prices for stocker cattle remained stable to slightly higher.
Southwest
Widespread rains occurred across the district, bringing between 0.75-7 inches. Rains provided much-needed moisture for those planting oats and wheat, as well as for crops currently growing. They also reduced or eliminated the need for irrigation in some areas and provided some recharge to aquifers. Pasture conditions were expected to improve headed into the fall. A storm front also brought in cooler temperatures, dropping into the low 80s over the weekend, with the cooler weather providing relief for heat-stressed plants, livestock and wildlife. Farmers were cutting the last crop of hay and preparing land for small-grain planting. Corn and sorghum harvests were expected to wrap up by the following week. The cotton harvest was approaching rapidly, with many fields ready for harvest. Baling of the year’s second hay cutting was near completion. Planting and germination of cool-season grasses and forbs began. Some trees were starting to defoliate. Livestock producers were preparing for the breeding season. Livestock remained in fair condition. Migratory birds were arriving, mostly doves, but some ducks were also spotted. Local dove hunters reported scattered birds due to the recent rains. Supplemental feeding of livestock slowed down. There were a few reports of desert termite damage in pastures.
