Hay stocks for winter feeding of Texas’ cattle herd are much-improved compared to last year, but the early outlook for cool-season grazing has been dampened by drought, according to 
experts.
Winter feeding costs are likely to be lower than last year, but the ongoing dry spell across much of the state has cattle producers cautiously optimistic about sustaining their herds into spring.
Vanessa Corriher-Olson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension forage specialist in the Texas A&M Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Overton, said hay supplies are better than they have been going into the past two winters, but the quality may be an issue.
Much of the hay-producing areas, especially East Texas, experienced rainy conditions as the first spring cuttings were mature. Soggy conditions delayed many first cuttings and/or post-harvest fertilizer applications, and some hay may have been rained on before it was baled. Those scenarios all can lead to reductions in hay quality.
“The moisture prevented folks from getting into their fields at the right time to optimize the nutrient value, and if they weren’t able to apply timely fertilizer, that will have an effect on future cuttings,” she said. “I’ve seen some hay analyses around East Texas, and while it may be adequate for mature dry cows, any heifers, stockers and cows with calves will need additional protein and energy.”
Supplemental feeding prices improve
Fortunately, prices for supplemental livestock rations like liquid feed and range cubes have softened some, said Jason Cleere, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension beef cattle specialist in the Department of Animal Science, Bryan-College Station.
For example, a ton of range cubes is about $40-$60 less per ton than this time last year. The higher hay stocks and lower supplemental feed prices translate into lower costs for ranchers through winter.
“Calf prices are still really high, and most producers aren’t going to spend as much on hay and supplementation, which means the cost-per-day to winter a cow is down,” he said. “That translates into more money in their pocket.”
Grazing conditions in decline
Fall and winter grazing conditions may be better than last year, but rangelands and pastures are declining due to drought and above-average temperatures, Corriher-Olson said. Declining soil moisture across much of the state is also impacting producers’ ability to establish cool-season annuals like winter wheat, oats and ryegrass.
In recent weeks, AgriLife Extension agents in counties around the state have shared a mixed bag of results for producers who planted winter wheat and other cool-season grasses for fall grazing. Some producers were moving stocker calves to graze on good, established wheat stands.
However, producers were dealing with challenges or continued to wait for rain before planting cool-season forages. Many acres prepared for wheat and oats are still unplanted due to low soil moisture and a poor rain outlook. On other acres, seeds were dusted in or planted into suboptimal soil moisture resulting in no germination, germinated seeds and poor emergence, or post-emergent failure that will require replanting.
Some fields in a few counties that emerged well were devastated by armyworms and will likely need replanting.
Corriher-Olson said producers should still consider the value of winter forages and dry-plant now or be ready to plant before any precipitation.
“I’m not surprised producers are delaying planting winter pasture and questioning whether they are going to plant, but I think it’s still worth the risk to address the hay quality issue for a lot of folks,” she said.
Drought stalling Texas beef herd rebuild
Overall, Cleere said there is more optimism among cattle producers going into this winter than last year. Winter grazing conditions will continue to be a concern for ranchers until they receive adequate rainfall to support cool-season grass establishment and production.
Ranchers remain cautious when it comes to rebuilding the cow herd due to the dryer conditions they are experiencing, as well as memories of the past two years of serious droughts, he said.
There were 4.65 million beef cattle in Texas in 2019, but the number declined to 4.15 million in January 2024, the lowest point since 1961, after back-to-back years of drought and poor hay and forage production.
David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist in the Department of Agricultural Economics, Bryan-College Station, said he expects the January 2025 U.S. Department of Agriculture cattle inventory report to show further declines based on the high numbers of heifers going to feedlots and cows going to meat packers.
“It’s certainly a different situation than last year,” Cleere said. “Producers will continue to retain replacement heifers, but it depends on whether they can hold back a number that indicates they are rebuilding their herds to pre-drought levels.”
AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:
Central
Dry conditions persisted, and temperatures cooled. Stock tanks dried down, resulting in poor water quality. Plowing and planting of cool-season grains ceased in most areas until additional rainfall was received. Some producers planted winter wheat. In other areas, pecan and hay harvests continued without interruptions, and the cotton harvest was winding down. Overall, crops suffered. Dryland small grains that emerged began to run out of moisture. Cattle producers fed hay and supplemental rations as pastures continued to dry. Established trees showed signs of stress. Live oaks and cedar elms developed cankers, anthracnose and leaf spot disease along with sloughing and split bark.
Rolling Plains
Cattle were faring well, but producers anxiously awaited rain to break the heat and support wheat planting. Cooler days provided some relief, but pasture conditions were poor, and emerged winter wheat was showing signs of moisture stress or dying. Some wheat fields looked promising but needed rainfall soon. Wildfire was a concern. Cotton harvest started in certain areas, but producers hesitated to defoliate due to uncertain yields. Some cotton fields were zeroed out. Supplemental feeding for cattle began as pastures were depleted, and many producers were considering dry planting wheat and oats. Despite the dire conditions, calf prices remained strong.
Coastal Bend
Hot, dry conditions continued with no rainfall for over 30 days. Soil moisture was low, and producers were holding off on fertilization until the moisture outlook improved. Fieldwork continued with disking, stalk destruction and drainage preparations, but some tillage was halted due to dry conditions. Pasture conditions were deteriorating rapidly, with shortened days and a lack of moisture. Haying continued, though yields were lower, and there was concern about fires due to dry grass. Cattle prices remained strong despite the dry conditions, but winter pastures were suffering or have not germinated. Livestock were doing well but some cattle producers began feeding hay on heavily stocked pastures. Pecan harvest yields remained poor.
East
Drought conditions worsened across the district. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were short. Lack of rainfall pushed many counties to initiate burn bans. Forages have lost nutrient value. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair. Pond and creek levels have dropped. Fall forage plantings halted due to drought conditions. Cattle markets remained strong. Livestock were in fair-to-good condition with some supplementation taking place. Wild pigs were still active and causing destruction.
South Plains
Very dry conditions continued. Cotton farmers were busy stripping fields and spraying defoliants on cotton planted later in the growing season. Some cotton gins started running. Winter wheat continued to be planted, but much of it had not emerged due to the very dry conditions. Millet was finishing out and will be sprayed soon. Silage continued to be cut and hauled to local dairies and feedlots. Corn and sorghum stubble were being bailed for hay. Cattle were in good condition.
Panhandle
The district continued to experience high winds and very dry conditions. Overall soil moisture levels were very short to adequate. Cooler weather provided some relief to newly emerging wheat, but precipitation was needed. The peanut harvest began, and corn, grain sorghum and cotton harvests continued. Forage crops continued to be harvested for silage and hay. Some dryland cotton will not be harvested. Livestock were being supplemented with protein and hay. Pasture and range conditions ranged from fair to very poor. Overall crop conditions were reported as good to poor.
North
Topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to adequate. Pasture and range conditions were very poor to good. Cooler temperatures stopped grass growth, and the grass turned brown in a few areas. A few counties experienced their first frost of the season. Winter wheat fields were being prepared for planting. Stock tanks were a top concern for cattle producers. Fall honey flow could be impacted by drought conditions. Figs were still producing, and fall vegetables were doing well. Supplemental hay was being fed in pastures where grazing was limited. Livestock were doing well. Grasshoppers were feeding on any green vegetation.
Far West
Conditions started cooling off toward the end of last week, and days were suitable for fieldwork. Temperatures ranged from the 50s to low 70s. Moisture levels remained very low, and rain was needed to improve range and small grain conditions. Cotton harvest continued, and yields were disappointing as bolls were much smaller than projected. The harvest was moving along quickly and should be completed within the next two weeks. Wheat planting stopped until fields receive enough moisture to promote emergence and sustain the crop. Temperatures remained warm enough for grass and weed growth in low-lying pasture areas. Range conditions were fair to good. High winds and no moisture throughout the past few weeks have dried things out. Livestock were in fair condition. Producers were struggling with bad pasture conditions and continued to feed livestock and wildlife. In the Rio Grande Valley, Pima cotton looked excellent and upland cotton looked good. Pecan orchards were hit hard by black pecan aphids; many growers have sprayed up to five times. Alfalfa producers should make a last cut before the first freeze.
West Central
Some areas needed rain. Temperatures were below normal and in the 40s. Soil moisture was depleted. Producers continued to cut and bale hay and plant small grains, including winter wheat. Those fields needed rainfall, and some producers were waiting for rain before they planted. Some producers were buying shipped hay. Pastures looked fair to good but needed rain. Rangeland conditions were poor to fair, and some producers were feeding livestock. Armyworm activity increased. Pond levels were dropping. The landscape turned brown over the past three weeks. Cotton bolls were opening slowly, and some fields were shredded due to low productivity. Some irrigated cotton was defoliated. Pecan harvest was underway. Fall cattle work continued, and body conditions were better than previous years. Cattle prices were steady to higher.
Southwest
Weather conditions remained dry, though temperatures have moderated some, with nighttime lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s and daytime highs in the mid-80s. Isolated areas received trace amounts of rain insufficient to benefit crops. The warm and dry conditions halted grass growth. Soils remained extremely dry with cracking, and forages were steadily declining. Cotton harvesting wrapped up. Most planted small grains emerged but were now dying. The planting of winter pastures was delayed due to extreme dryness. While pastures appeared to be in good condition, they were becoming very dry, and fire danger was increasing. Rangelands were similarly dry as the growing season ends. Supplemental feeding of livestock and some wildlife continued, and producers continued to sell off livestock. Deer were in mostly fair condition. Stock tanks were drying out, though cooler temperatures slowed evaporation. Temperatures were expected to approach 90 degrees next week with no rain in the forecast.
South
Conditions were dry with little to no reported rainfall in most areas. Brooks County reported up to 2 inches of rainfall. Cool weather brought some relief to producers, but others continued to experience high temperatures. Soil moisture conditions continued to decline, and rangeland and pastures were suffering. Peanut and sesame harvests were expected to begin soon. Strawberry planting continued and was nearing completion in some areas. Winter vegetables were being planted, and fall corn was progressing well. Citrus continued to mature, and harvest should start soon for some varieties. Producers were monitoring fruit fly issues in citrus. Producers continued to bale hay and plant winter wheat and oats. Growers sprayed weeds in crop fields and were preparing to plant leafy greens. Livestock were in good condition. Beef producers were supplementing diets for livestock and wildlife. Ranchers were selling calves and yearlings, replacement cattle were in good demand, and packer cows and bulls sold steadily. Producers continued culling cows due to dry conditions and the approaching winter. Stock tanks were declining.
