A disturbance located in the northern Caribbean islands is expected to organize into a tropical depression or storm by this weekend or early next week. If the storm does develop it will be the third storm this hurricane season and would be named Debby. This development could occur in the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near Florida.
Florida is likely to experience increased rainfall starting this weekend and continuing into early next week, regardless of the system’s development. The exact impacts on Florida and other southern U.S. regions remain uncertain.

 

Computer models indicate that the disturbance, identified as Invest 97L, may face relatively light wind shear and will encounter warm ocean waters that could support its development near the Bahamas or the Gulf of Mexico. Recent forecast models have shifted the anticipated development area westward toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida.
The forecast remains uncertain, with potential scenarios ranging from the system tracking over the northern Gulf Coast to the Southeast coast. The system’s intensity could vary from a low-pressure system or tropical depression to a hurricane.

 

The system’s forward speed might slow or become erratic next week if it develops, potentially becoming trapped in weak steering winds between two high-pressure systems. A slower-moving tropical system can lead to increased rainfall, with past studies indicating that rainfall flooding has caused the most direct U.S. deaths from tropical storms and hurricanes since 2013.
The potential for significant rainfall in Florida will likely continue into early next week, with future updates expected as more information becomes available.

A list of storm names for 2024 can be downloaded from the NOAA website.

Printable hurricane tracking charts can be downloaded from the NOAA website.

 

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