Recent rains in South Texas helped agricultural production in the short term but did little to address the long-term outlook for irrigation water supplies in a region critical to the U.S. food supply.
“Having some rain locally has been helpful, but it would have been better if it had rained on both sides of the border to help fill the reservoirs,” said Luis Ribera, Ph.D., Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service economist and director of the Center for North American Studies, CNAS, in the Department of Agricultural Economics.
The Rio Grande Valley, which produces a wide range of crops, relies on water released from Lake Amistad near Del Rio and Falcon Lake south of Laredo, but reservoir capacities have been declining.
Ribera said currently Falcon Reservoir and Lake Amistad, which are below 13.5% and about 25% capacity, respectively, did not benefit much from rains brought by either Tropical Storm Alberto or Hurricane Beryl.
Another major impediment to agricultural production in the region has been the hesitancy of Mexican authorities to deliver on the amount of water owed by a 1944 treaty.
“At this time, Mexico still owes about 900,000-plus acre-feet of water as required by this 80-year-old treaty,” he said. “We have had irrigation water shortages in the region since the 1990s, and this has been exacerbated by Mexico undersupplying the average minimum annual amount of water into the Rio Grande as required by this treaty.”
Agriculture’s economic impact on the Lower Rio Grande Valley
A report from CNAS earlier this year estimated that the economic impact of the complete lack of irrigation water for crop production in the Lower Rio Grande Valley in 2024 would be about $495.8 million in direct revenue loss. It also showed a complete lack of irrigated crop production in 2024 would mean an estimated total loss in economic output of $993.2 million as well as lead to a $554.8 million loss in value-added contributions to the state’s gross domestic product.
“We did this report at the request of agricultural producers in the Lower Rio Grande Valley who wanted to make people aware of the dire situation they are facing now and the uncertainty of future agricultural production in the region due to a lack of stability in acquiring sufficient irrigation water,” Ribera said.
Impact of irrigation shortages on Rio Grande Valley crops
The crops in the Rio Grande Valley mostly affected by irrigation water shortages are row crops, mainly sorghum, cotton and corn, and specialty crops, which are primarily vegetables, citrus fruits and sugarcane. Row crops can be grown in either irrigated or dryland production systems; however, specialty crops can only be grown under irrigation.
Dante Galeazzi, president and CEO of Texas International Produce Association, said while agricultural producers in South Texas considered the recent rains a blessing, the situation for most vegetable and fruit growers has been lackluster so far. Galeazzi said the lack of water – rain or irrigation – earlier in the year made it necessary for many corn producers to plow under dried-out fields. It also led to smaller-than-average produce from both vegetable and fruit crops.
“This lack of certainty about irrigation water also had an impact on the crop mix, with fewer acres being devoted to more water-intensive but high-value crops like celery, broccoli and cauliflower,” he said. “Producers have devoted more acres to crops like cabbage and onions because they may not require as much irrigation during the time they are in the ground.”
Galeazzi said another indicator of producer hesitancy in planting is reflected in the fact that seed sales for vegetables in the Rio Grande Valley are down about 30% from recent years.
Irrigation concerns for commodities and citrus
Dale Murden, president of Texas Citrus Mutual based in Harlingen, said continued uncertainty about irrigation water availability will also negatively impact the region’s specialty crop and citrus production. Many Rio Grande Valley producers are still replacing citrus damaged by Winter Storm Uri in 2021. But the questions around irrigation availability are putting future plantings in doubt.
“This and the unreliability of Mexico to deliver on its water commitments makes it difficult to impossible to plan ahead for further plantings,” Murden said.
Russon Holbrook vice president of South Texas Organics, a certified organic grower of grapefruit, oranges and onions, said the operation intends to plant 5,000 citrus trees this year and another 5,000 next year. He is concerned over water availability, particularly for next year’s plantings.
“With the spring rains and good cloud cover to reduce temperatures, we’re in better shape than last year for our citrus,” Holbrook said. “But some water districts in the valley only have one remaining allocation, and we will need irrigation water for when we plant onions later this year. While we have been fortunate so far this year, we can’t say there will be sufficient irrigation water for later this year or in 2025. The lack of irrigation water is a consistent problem here.”
Most of the region’s corn and milo have already been harvested or plowed under and some cotton growers have begun harvesting. For those cotton growers who still had cotton in their fields, the recent rains made it difficult to get into the fields, led to reduced yields, and caused additional pest and disease pressure.
Addressing the irrigation water issue
Ruben Saldana, Ed.D., district administrator for AgriLife Extension’s District 12 based at the Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center in Weslaco, said the drought situation and lack of irrigation water in South Texas has already led to the closure of the last sugar mill in Texas. Additionally, many cities in the Rio Grande Valley have remained under water restrictions even after the recent rains.
Saldana said Mexico, especially the state of Chihuahua, has expanded its reservoirs and dams to the point it now can provide sufficient water to meet its commitments, including for agricultural production and to allow any excesses to flow into Falcon and Amistad reservoirs. He said both federal lawmakers and the U.S. Department of State have been engaged in efforts to compel Mexico to meet the requirements of the 1944 treaty.
Recently, the Fiscal Year 2025 Department of State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs appropriations bill, which contains language about withholding funds from Mexico until it comes into treaty compliance, was passed in the U.S. House. Additionally, a new “Minute Order” from the International Boundary and Water Commission is seeking to assure that Mexico meets its delivery obligations in a five-year cycle.
“This is a complicated situation, but the longer it drags out, the worse things will be for the farmers and ranchers of the Rio Grande Valley and throughout South Texas,” Saldana said. “The sooner this can be resolved, the better the chances of our region’s agricultural producers being able to plan for the future so their operations can survive.”
AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:
Rolling Plains
The district experienced hot and dry conditions throughout the week. Livestock water sources were low, and pastures were drying rapidly. Wildfire concern was growing and was expected to worsen if the hot, dry and windy conditions continue. Grasshoppers were being reported in all areas and becoming problematic.
Coastal Bend
The district received more rainfall last week, which contributed to wet field conditions in some areas. Drier weather was forecast and should allow the corn harvest to resume. Corn and grain sorghum harvest were completed in most areas with producers reporting better-than-expected yields. Cotton seeds started sprouting inside bolls, and wet weather left some plants in bad shape. Rice harvest was in progress and looked good. Rangeland and pastures were in great condition, and forage and hay harvest continued with high yields reported. Livestock were in good condition and benefited from the abundance of forage.
East
Drier weather helped to dry fields and pastures with hay production in full swing. Armyworms continued to cause major problems, and producers were spraying for them. Pasture and rangeland conditions were good to excellent with adequate soil moisture. Livestock conditions ranged from fair to good. Cattle markets remained strong, but some feeder cattle prices were slightly lower, depending on class.
Southeast
Conditions were warm and dry in most areas, but a few areas received heavy rain over the weekend. Some flooding was reported, and rice harvest was delayed. Armyworms were reported in multiple counties. Cotton was in good condition in most areas, and harvest was underway. Hay harvest continued with most areas reporting good conditions. Rice was ready to be harvested. Pasture and rangeland conditions varied from very poor to excellent and soil conditions ranged from adequate to surplus. Calf prices were steady but lower in some cattle classes.
South Plains
Conditions were hot and dry with depleted soil moisture. Producers reported symptoms of drought and heat stress in most crops and were beginning to irrigate in most areas. Sugarcane aphids were being reported in grain sorghum, and mites were seen in corn. Spraying was being done on both crops. Cotton was shedding bolls in stressed dryland cotton. Early corn looked good, but producers were concerned about late-planted corn. Black-eyed peas looked good and were beginning to pod. Blister bugs and grasshoppers were finally exiting forage fields. Alfalfa was struggling but was being cut and shipped. Bermuda grass was struggling as well. Cattle were in good condition, but pastures were hot and dry.
Panhandle
Conditions were very hot and dry, but a few mid- to late-week rain showers relieved the soil moisture drawdown. Flowering in cotton plants progressed at an expected rate with young bolls expanding in size and developing fiber inside. Many cotton fields across the northwest Panhandle were in or nearing peak boll development. Fields needed to be monitored frequently to make the best management decisions about irrigation scheduling and other applications to finish the season.
North
Conditions were hot and dry with sporadic rainfall and high temperatures in the 100s. The hot, dry and windy conditions resulted in drier soil and heat-stressed vegetation in most areas. Soil conditions were short to adequate with pasture and rangeland conditions varying from poor to excellent in most areas. Corn and forage sorghum harvests neared completion while grain sorghum was nearing or at maturity. Despite the high heat, some garden crops were producing well, including okra and peppers. Hydroponic lettuce and greens were also doing well. Summer grasses were excellent and hay harvest continued. Reports of grasshoppers and fall armyworms were on the rise. Livestock were in good condition.
Far West
Rain provided much-needed relief with some areas averaging about a half inch as temperatures remained between the upper 90s to low 100s. Soil moisture levels were low, but the rains improved conditions to fair. Recent weather improved pastures and some remaining cotton fields. Hay and alfalfa were still growing well, and cantaloupe and watermelon crops were being harvested. Pasture and livestock conditions were good.
West Central
Hot and dry conditions continued with little to no rain reported. The continued hot and dry weather created a fire danger in some areas with one county reporting two brush fires that burned a total of 225 acres. Soil moisture levels were poor to fair with rapidly declining topsoil conditions. Hay production was very good with most areas reporting higher than expected yields. Cotton conditions ranged from poor to fair with most crops exhibiting signs of heat and drought stress. Forage and grain sorghum were fair, and corn harvest was complete. Sorghum harvest was almost complete in some areas, but yields were poor due to drought. Insect pest problems were decreasing some, but stem maggots were reported in some fields in northern parts of the district. Pasture conditions were poor to fair, and livestock conditions were good. Cattle markets were holding steady.
Southwest
Conditions were hot but some areas received rainfall, which helped improve pastures and rangeland. Corn and forage sorghum harvests continued with grain sorghum harvest expected to start soon. Hay production continued and hay quality was good. Pastures and rangelands continued to improve with most areas reporting good conditions.
South
Temperatures were hot but some areas received rainfall up to half an inch. Corn and sorghum harvest continued with most areas near completion. Cotton harvest continued in most areas with some areas resuming after receiving rainfall. Cotton conditions ranged from poor to fair, and producers in some areas were reporting low yields while others were making tough decisions on whether to harvest lower quality cotton or turn it over to crop insurance. Citrus and peanut crops were doing well, and peanuts were beginning to develop pods. Producers were also cutting and baling hay with most areas reporting good yields. Pasture and rangeland conditions ranged from poor to fair, and livestock were in good condition. Cattle markets were strong.
