An unusually strong El NiƱo could bring Texas a wetter, somewhat cooler fall and winter, offering a chance to replenish deep soil moisture depleted by years of dry weather, according to AgriLife Todayās Oct. 20, 2026, report. But recent heavy rains have not erased drought conditions, and additional rain could delay fall planting.
Ronnie Schnell, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service state cropping systems specialist and professor in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences in Bryan-College Station, said standing water in fields can give a misleading impression of recovery. Some Panhandle areas received 8-9 inches of rain in the weeks preceding the report, but wet soil near the surface does not necessarily mean moisture has reached deeper layers.
Schnell said most of Texas remained in drought on the U.S. Drought Monitorās Texas map despite the rainfall. Even some places that received several inches had not gained enough moisture to move out of drought.
Why deeper moisture matters
Long-term rainfall shortages have left deeper soil layers dry across much of the Panhandle, West, South and South Central Texas, Schnell said. Spring rainfall can help crops temporarily, but that moisture disappears quickly when little water is stored below it. Low stream flows and low pond and lake levels also reflect the prolonged shortage, he said.
Producers in the Panhandle and South Texas need winter rainfall to rebuild that soil moisture, followed by rain during the 2027 growing season to reduce demands on irrigation, Schnell said.
The timing and amount of rainfall will determine how useful it is. Repeated storms during fall planting could keep equipment out of fields and delay winter wheat, oats and cool-season forages, even as the moisture helps address longer-term deficits.
What is driving the outlook
John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas state climatologist and Regents Professor in the Texas A&M Department of Atmospheric Sciences in Bryan-College Station, said the El NiƱo described in the report had no exact historical match. Six events over the preceding 75 years came close in strength and provide clues about possible conditions.
Those comparable events generally brought wetter weather from October through April, particularly October through February, along with somewhat cooler temperatures and increased snowfall in northern Texas, he said. Computer models pointed toward a similar wet, probably cooler pattern, giving forecasters strong confidence in that outlook.
Nielsen-Gammon identified 2015-2016 as the last significant winter El NiƱo pattern and 1991-1992 as the most memorably wet winter among the comparable events.
He explained that Pacific trade winds normally help draw cool water to the surface along the equator. Changes in those winds affect the current carrying that water, and the current had nearly stopped in 2026, leaving unusually warm surface water across the tropical Pacific.
That warmth increases the temperature contrast between the tropics and higher latitudes, producing a stronger jet stream positioned somewhat farther south, Nielsen-Gammon said. That position puts Texas more directly in the path of weather systems carried by the jet stream.
He said early October 2026 storms appeared to mark the start of that pattern. Some areas had already received their normal October rainfall totals, although the rain may have arrived too late to help many crops.
Outlooks cited in the report showed El NiƱo peaking around December 2026 and weakening through spring 2027. Nielsen-Gammon said a milder severe weather season tends to follow an El NiƱo and that there was a good chance La NiƱa would develop in 2027.
Rainfall benefits remain uneven
AgriLife Extension district reports showed a mixture of improved planting conditions, harvest delays and continuing shortages. In the South Plains, some areas received 2.5-6 inches of rain, but wet fields and roads limited access, and cooler temperatures slowed cotton harvesting. Rolling Plains rainfall ranged from 1-8 inches, filling stock tanks in some places while leaving fields flooded for days.
Central Texas locations that received rain generally reported about 1-1.5 inches, while other areas received none. Some newly planted small grains were expected to benefit, but wheat and oats elsewhere were already drought-stressed. Dry vegetation continued to pose a wildfire risk.
In the Southeast district, recent rain improved soil moisture in some areas, while fire danger remained high where conditions stayed dry. Producers were planting winter forages as grass growth slowed. In the South district, most areas received no rain, extreme drought persisted in some locations, and producers continued supplementing livestock and wildlife feed.
