A recent House reconciliation bill analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) has raised serious concerns about the financial consequences of the legislation. The bill, titled H.Con.Res.14, outlines the congressional budget for Fiscal Year 2025 and sets expectations for revenues, spending, and deficits through 2034. While the bill includes strong language about reducing deficits and promoting fiscal responsibility, CRFB’s analysis shows that the likely outcomes tell a different story.
According to the House reconciliation bill analysis, the legislation could raise the federal debt by about $3.3 trillion over the next decade. If temporary provisions included in the bill are later made permanent—an outcome seen frequently in past legislation—the debt increase could exceed $5.2 trillion. Annual federal deficits are projected to reach over $3 trillion by 2034, and interest payments on the debt could double from nearly $900 billion in 2024 to about $1.8 trillion by the end of the period.
The reconciliation bill sets broad instructions for various House committees to reduce the deficit. These include a mandate for the Energy and Commerce Committee to cut $880 billion, and for the Education and Workforce Committee to reduce $330 billion. In total, these committees are expected to deliver more than $2 trillion in savings. However, the same resolution allows the House Ways and Means Committee to increase the deficit by up to $4.5 trillion, effectively neutralizing the proposed savings.
The CRFB’s House reconciliation bill analysis also includes charts that illustrate the likely fiscal path under the legislation. One chart shows deficits surging year over year, particularly if temporary policies are extended. Another shows the national debt climbing to 129% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2034, compared to about 100% today.
The resolution includes policy statements promoting economic growth through tax cuts, deregulation, and reduced federal spending. However, CRFB argues that the actual provisions of the bill do not align with those goals. Instead, the structure of the bill allows for high levels of spending and borrowing, leading to greater long-term debt.
Ultimately, the House reconciliation bill analysis by CRFB warns that, unless significant changes are made, the legislation could lead to increased deficits and a heavier debt burden. The organization urges Congress to take a more balanced and fiscally responsible approach to avoid undermining the country’s financial future.
