U.S. pork producers are seeing a mixed market in 2026, with production holding relatively steady, hog prices trailing last year and lower feed costs helping keep operations profitable.

U.S. pork production is up 1.3% so far this year compared with 2025, although output has declined about half a percent during the past four weeks. Despite similar overall supplies, hog prices remain below last year’s levels, according to David Anderson, Ph.D., Texas A&M AgriLife Extension economist in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics.

Lower Feed Costs Keep Producers Profitable

Farrow-to-finish pork producers have now recorded 25 consecutive months of profitability, a significant turnaround from 2023 and 2024, when losses reached as much as $50 per head during the worst months.

Producer profits this year have ranged from approximately $2.60 to $52 per head. Much of that profitability has come from lower feed and corn costs rather than stronger hog prices.

Hog and Pork Prices Follow Seasonal Trends

Pork production typically follows a seasonal pattern, declining during the summer as high temperatures make it more difficult for hogs to gain weight before increasing again during the fall and early part of the year.

National hog prices averaged approximately 97 cents per pound last week, compared with about $1.07 per pound at the same time last year.

Wholesale pork prices have been more varied. Spareribs averaged $1.74 per pound last week, up from $1.65 a year ago but down from $1.96 six weeks earlier.

Pork bellies climbed to $1.93 per pound from $1.46 six weeks ago but remained below last year’s $2.13 per pound. Pork loins increased from $1.04 per pound six weeks ago to $1.11, compared with $1.16 per pound last year.

Pork Remains an Affordable Alternative to Beef

At the grocery store, pork continues to occupy the middle ground between chicken and increasingly expensive beef.

The July Consumer Price Index showed retail pork averaging $4.89 per pound, down from $5.01 per pound a year earlier. Beef climbed from $9.69 to $10.49 per pound, while chicken declined slightly from $2.08 to $2.01 per pound.

The pork industry continues looking for ways to expand beyond traditional products such as bacon and breakfast sausage. Ground pork is increasingly appearing alongside ground beef, turkey and chicken, while sausages, charcuterie and smoked pork products have become more prominent.

High beef prices are also putting pressure on barbecue restaurants, encouraging some businesses to rely more heavily on pork and chicken. Pork, however, still lacks a dominant fast-food item comparable to hamburgers, chicken sandwiches or chicken tenders.

Producers Aren’t Expanding Their Herds

Despite more than two years of profitability, pork producers have not significantly expanded their herds.

The nation’s sow herd has continued to decline. Instead, production gains are coming from record numbers of pigs born per litter and heavier carcass weights. Barrow and gilt dressed weights averaged 211 pounds last week, up from 209 pounds a year ago.

High construction and financing costs remain a major obstacle to expansion. Adding sows often requires producers to invest in new facilities at a time when the cost of construction materials and borrowing remains high.

Mexico Leads U.S. Pork Export Market

Exports remain an important source of demand, with approximately 20% to 30% of U.S. pork production sold internationally.

Overall pork exports are running ahead of last year, helped by stronger sales to Japan. Shipments to China, however, have declined amid tariffs, retaliatory tariffs and export-plant approval issues.

The United States shipped 23.1 million pounds of pork to China in June, down from 36.7 million pounds a year earlier and well below the five-year June average of 78.9 million pounds.

Mexico has become the dominant international buyer of U.S. pork, importing 226 million pounds in June. Japan imported 87 million pounds, while Canada purchased 33.4 million pounds.

That represents a significant change from 2020 and 2021, when China was the leading market for U.S. pork as African swine fever reduced its domestic hog population.