Texans may have plenty of pecans for pies, pralines and holiday tables this year, with growers expecting the state’s 2026 crop to be larger than last year’s harvest. An estimate from the Tri-State Pecan Growers Association puts Texas pecan production near 42 million pounds this season, while Texas A&M AgriLife pecan specialist Monte Nesbitt estimates the final yield could come in closer to 39 million pounds.
Either figure would represent an improvement over last year’s crop of approximately 32 million pounds. While the numbers are encouraging, Texas pecan growers are still facing extreme heat, dry conditions, insects and disease that could affect the quality of the nuts as harvest approaches.
A Promising Crop Facing a Tough Finish
Pecan trees have a long growing season, beginning to bud in late March with harvest typically starting no earlier than October. That leaves the crop exposed to months of changing Texas weather, and this year’s swings between wet and dry conditions have created challenges for growers.
An unusually wet spring across North, East and Central Texas initially provided plenty of moisture for orchards, but those wet conditions also created a favorable environment for pecan scab, a fungal disease that can damage developing nuts. Growers have also reported increased cases of downy spot and powdery mildew.
Much of Texas then moved into extremely hot and dry conditions just as pecan trees entered the critical kernel-filling stage during August and September. This is when the edible portion of the pecan develops and when the trees’ demand for water is particularly high.
Without enough moisture, pecans that appear perfectly normal from the outside can develop shriveled or malformed kernels inside. Growers with reliable irrigation are in a better position to carry their crop through the final weeks of development, while orchards without adequate water face greater uncertainty.
Insects Add Another Challenge
Weather has not been the only problem for growers this year, as pecan nut casebearers have also appeared in higher-than-normal numbers. The insect can cause significant damage to pecan orchards because its larvae burrow into developing nuts and feed on the kernels.
Producers closely monitor casebearer populations and use control measures when necessary to protect their crops. Despite the challenges, Texas’ enormous size and variety of growing regions mean high-quality pecans are still expected to come out of parts of the state this season.
What Could Happen to Pecan Prices?
Growers are also keeping a close eye on the market as harvest approaches. Wholesale pecan prices improved at times for the 2025 crop compared with 2023 and 2024, with some lots selling for more than $2 per pound and approaching $3 per pound during the first quarter of 2026.
Prices for the new crop will depend partly on how early harvests turn out in Georgia, Louisiana and East Texas, including both the amount of pecans harvested and the quality of the kernels. Producers are also facing higher operating expenses as fuel and fertilizer costs, along with additional spraying needed to control insects and disease, put pressure on profit margins.
More pecan growers are turning to direct-to-consumer sales in an effort to receive better returns for their crops. Consumers, meanwhile, could see retail pecan prices increase slightly this year along with overall food prices.
