Texans planning summer cookouts or weekly grocery trips should expect beef prices to remain near record highs through the fall, but agricultural economists say shoppers are unlikely to see the dramatic price swings experienced last year.
According to the latest Texas A&M Food Price Predictor: Summer 2026 Meat Prices report from the Texas A&M College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Department of Agricultural Economics, retail prices for beef, pork and chicken are expected to remain relatively stable through October, giving consumers a more predictable outlook when planning their food budgets.
While beef will continue to be the most expensive meat option, several popular cuts are expected to hold steady or even decline slightly over the coming months. Ground beef is projected to dip modestly from approximately $6.71 per pound in May to around $6.62 by October. Chuck roast and sirloin steak are also expected to remain flat or edge downward, while ribeye steaks could see a small decrease from about $18.81 to $18.33 per pound.
One notable exception is brisket, a favorite for many Texas barbecue enthusiasts. The report predicts brisket prices will climb slightly, increasing from approximately $5.83 to $5.95 per pound by October.
Despite the relatively stable forecast, economists caution that several factors could still influence meat prices during the remainder of the summer. One of the biggest concerns is the continued threat posed by the New World screwworm. The flesh-eating parasite has prompted the closure of livestock imports from Mexico, reducing the flow of cattle into the United States and potentially increasing production costs for domestic ranchers. While the parasite itself is not expected to significantly reduce the nation’s beef supply, efforts to monitor and manage the pest could eventually contribute to higher consumer prices.
Another major factor affecting grocery prices is the cost of oil. Fuel prices influence nearly every stage of food production, including fertilizer manufacturing, livestock feed, transportation and distribution. Although economists believe oil prices may have reached their peak for now, any significant changes in global energy markets could still affect meat prices later this year. Even if fuel costs decline, consumers are unlikely to see immediate savings at the grocery store because those reductions typically take time to work through the supply chain.
For families looking to stretch their grocery dollars, pork and chicken remain the most affordable protein choices. Pork chops are expected to rise from approximately $3.54 per pound in May to about $3.84 by October, representing the largest increase among the meats studied, though they will still cost considerably less than most beef cuts. Chicken breasts are projected to remain one of the steadiest bargains, increasing only slightly from about $3.24 to $3.30 per pound.
The report notes that pork and poultry producers can respond much more quickly to market demand because hogs and chickens have significantly shorter production cycles than cattle. Expanding the beef supply takes years, as ranchers must retain breeding females before herd sizes can grow and eventually produce more market-ready cattle.
Economists also suggest that consumers may begin adjusting their purchasing habits if beef prices remain elevated. Ground beef is expected to continue offering one of the best values among beef products, while premium cuts such as ribeye and sirloin may increasingly become purchases reserved for holidays, celebrations or other special occasions.
Overall, the report points to a summer of relatively predictable meat prices rather than major fluctuations, though cattle inventories, the New World screwworm situation and global energy markets will continue to be important factors influencing what Texans ultimately pay at the checkout line.
